What Happens To The Stock Market After the US Government Reopens?

From past shutdowns to today’s rally, here’s how markets have reacted, and what might happen next.

China Tweet

WEEKEND NEWS ROUNDUP

🌏 China paused its rare earths restrictions… for now
🗳️ DJT floated the idea of giving every American a $2,000 “tariff dividend”
🏛️ And the US government looks set to reopen… a deal’s been struck to keep federal funding flowing until late January. (and then we go on the same ride again?!)

BTW. If you were wondering what that means for economic data like the jobs report. Mike Brown breaks it down well here: 👉 Light at the end of the government shutdown tunnel

Also worth noting:

The last time the US Government reopened after a shutdown (25th Jan 2019), the market ripped higher…
(Though to be fair, that was more about Powell softening his tone… the shutdown resolution was just the cherry on top.)

What Happens To The Stock Market After the US Government Reopens?

And this morning?

Well, of course, we’ve got ourselves a big ol’ gapski.

Interesting fact:
I threw Nasdaq ETF data into ChatGPT to check how a simple strategy would’ve done the last few weeks over this ‘weekend headline fest’.

Buy Friday close → Sell Monday open

📈 Last 6 weeks in a row were winners
💰 Average return: +0.97%
📊 Compounded return: ≈ +5.9%

5.9%! 🤯

Anyway, let’s see what price does today across the board.
Equities in play, Gold, AUDJPY having a good day too…

Stay patient, wait for the right plays.

Better to miss a bunch of trades and feel annoyed than take the wrong setups and have to recover from drawdown early in the week.