The Down Day Blueprint

How to Recognise and Trade Heavy Selling Days
on the Indices

The Down Day Blueprint

Now and then, all the stars align, and we get a much more predictable day type than normal.
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And one of those day types is a big sell-off on the indices type of day…
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​You know how it goes, pretty much a one-way street, the type of day every trader tried to fade in his early days 🙋🏼‍♂️…
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They often follow a similar pattern.
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And it’s a pattern that’s been playing out for years.
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Now, of course, no strategy is perfect. And a decent strategy knows when to admit it’s wrong and get out.
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But here’s the play:

BIG DOWN DAY PATTERNS

#1: You need a “shock down day.”
​Ideally, the selling is triggered by a surprise bearish news event. (It’s not always a news-driven move, but it helps.)
​You want to see immediate supply overwhelming demand.
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Cash session bell (2.30 pm UK, 9.30 am EST) just steady selling right off the bat.
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This is when volume and tape velocity spike. Sellers are aggressive. Buyers are overwhelmed. Price just keeps shuddering lower.
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What’s happening here?
Well, higher-timeframe players are reducing risk, and they’re often using VWAP or TWAP algos to do it.
​(Side note: this also works well on surprise news drops during the cash session, see the chart below.)

Surprise news drop

Then…
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​#2: The pause.
​After the morning panic, price finds a temporary bottom.
We often see a low-volume drift higher, sometimes even a sideways chop.
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This is the point where many intraday traders start to get a little bullish.

The Pause

#3: The closing sell wave.
As the day winds down, institutions re-check their expected order fill %, and often resume selling into the close.

Add to that:

  • Any traders who bought the midday bounce now realise it’s not the bounce they hoped for…
  • They exit into weakness…
  • And the second leg lower begins.

And remember, this all plays out before the closing bell.

Why? Because institutions need liquidity to get out. And after-hours liquidity is rubbish.

So how do you trade this?

I’d recommend reviewing the charts and studying the rhythm yourself, but here’s a rough roadmap:

✅ Let the post-panic bounce play out, don’t chase.
✅ Watch for a clear resistance level: VWAP, a prior high, maybe a failed retest.
✅ Look for a momentum ignition bar in the direction of the original trend.
✅ Get short with a clear stop, and aim to hold into the closing drive.

It doesn’t happen every day. But when it does…the theme and rhythm are often the same.