Market-On-Close (MOC) Order Flow
Why the Nasdaq Spikes at 3:50 PM
Ever noticed those weird spikes on the Nasdaq around 3:50 PM ET?
The market’s moving along, then suddenly, boom, a burst of volatility, a wide-range candle. Def an attention sharpener if you’re already in a scalp and not ready for it!
Let me show you…
PRICE SPIKES
Like this: (my x axis is BST; 20:50 = 3:50pm ET)
Or this:
Or this:
3:50 PM on the dot, large range, large volume bar.
So, what’s going on?
It’s MOC orders — Market-On-Close.
These are institutional orders that are set to execute at the closing price.
And at 3:50 PM ET, the NYSE releases the imbalance data, showing whether there’s a skew to buy or sell into the close.
eg:
MOC Imbalance
S&P 500: +582 mln
Nasdaq 100: +204 mln
Dow 30: +344 mln
That imbalance?
Big players and algos have to scramble to hedge, rebalance, or manage flow… and it moves the tape.
Market Chameleon has a great video explaining it all here
So, What Should You Do?
Is there a reliable strategy based on these imbalances?
Honestly… maybe. But it’s not obvious to me if there is.
There does seem to be a more exaggerated move around the release lately, but whether there’s real edge in that or not? dunno.
Let me know if you’ve spotted something.
For now, I reckon just be aware.
If you’re holding a position near the close, especially on an index future or a big tech name, watch out for sudden whipsaws around 3:50 PM.
Adjust your stops, manage risk, and don’t get blindsided.
And if you don’t trade US indices? Well, you just became Mr Exciting at the next BBQ…
The Close Is Where It Counts
MOC imbalances move fast and the window is tight.
If we’re trading the close on indices, execution speed and tight spreads aren’t optional…
Pepperstone supports MT4, MT5, and TradingView with index CFDs and spread betting across the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow.