How to Trade An Intraday
Liquidation Event

What to watch for when a crowded trade finally unravels.

Well, the precious metal train keeps on chugging. 🚂
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Gold is entering “parabolic move territory.” (for a commodity at least)
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So, what’s the potential play here?

WORKSHOP A GOLD TRADE

Now, personally? I think the swing trade setup is risky.
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A blow-off top vs a liquidation event… both are options.
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But I do think we’re due a huge intraday range day soon.
And that could create excellent short-term trading opportunities.
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​Let me think out loud here… this is not advice, of course, just how I might approach it…
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Last Wednesday’s Drop

So, last Wednesday, we got a taste of what could happen when a crowded trade needs to unwind.
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Almost as soon as the US cash session opened, Gold got smacked.
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A hard sell-off, down $80+ with almost no bounce.
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Now, of course, that turned out to be nothing on the daily chart this time, but the sheer volume and urgency give us a clue as to what to look out for next time. Right?
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The move may well be violent, one way and ripe for short-side momentum trading.
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But what we don’t want is to be the clown who shorts every ominous red candle in a runaway bull market, hoping for a reversal. 🤡
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We want to be smart and build a database of clues that will give us the green light to start playing short-side momentum if we see it.
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So, what were the clues?
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​#1 Urgency and Time of Day

Note the selling a few minutes after the bell (first arrow), aggressive selling, one-way street.
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The tape shifted, volume was higher than normal, and bounces were sold quickly.
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BTW, that volume indicator you see there is super handy for a day like this, it shows me the volume compared to the typical volume at that time of day 👇🏼
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​15m chart

The hollow box is the typical volume, the solid bar is the actual.
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So, at a glance, you can see “hey, this is unusual, something’s different” and position accordingly.
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I got it from here (free, just add it to your TradingView)
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​#2 Price Acceleration

Watch how price hugs the moving average on the way down…
No meaningful bounces, just driving lower.
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Then… boom. It breaks the prior day’s low → accelerates even faster.
Textbook liquidation event.
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Only when we got a decent range bull bar did things settle down…
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​Alright, so what’s the point of all this?
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Well, I like to prepare, not predict.
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I don’t know where Gold goes next… and I’ve been doing this too long to pretend I do. 🤪
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But one thing I do know after 20+ years in this crazy business?
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Rug-pull setups are rare…
…but when they play out, they can offer some beautiful trading opportunities.
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So I like to prepare them in advance.
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Because just blindly shorting in a vertical bull run is how accounts get mashed. ☠️
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Could Gold keep grinding up? Sure.
Could it stagnate or drift lower? Yep.
But if it does panic flush one day?
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​Don’t just hope to catch it.
Be ready.
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Because in this game, the edge often goes to the trader who already mapped out the play. 🫡