2 Period Rate of Change

How Linda Raschke and Stan Druckenmiller Used ROC to Time Trades

2 Period Rate of Change

Heard of the ‘Rate of Change’ indicator?

Linda Raschke likes to use a 2-period ROC on her charts… here’s a video where she explains it (Starts at 29:23.)

And Stanley Druckenmiller once admitted (ha, ‘admitted’ like it’s a sin!) that charts help his trading decisions.
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But dig deeper, and he mentions something odd: “Second derivative rate of change” 🤷🏼‍♂️

RATE OF CHANGE

Druckenmiller said this:
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“But I was introduced to all the top chart systems throughout 20 years, and we ended up buying a system, and bring it internally. And because it used second derivative rate of change, these things will often bottom a year to a year and a half before the fundamentals,”
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Wait… Second derivative of rate of change?
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Now I’m no mathematician, but I think that means…the acceleration of the rate of change.
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A rate of change of the erm rate of change.
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We know that Druckenmiller was looking for big macro themes, multi-year plays, and it seems that the 2nd derivative of ROC was his ‘tell’ before the crowd noticed.
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So, how much value does that have for us active traders? Probably not so much…
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Linda Raschke, however, looks to capture the next predictable swing… not a multi-week hold, but the next one to three-day move. (Far more useful for traders, swing or day.)
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And she uses a 2-day ROC to help find that swing.
Then, a trendline break on the ROC indicator to guide entries. (See above)
Just catching the rhythm of the market:
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Trend → pause → breakout → swing.
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So, what’s my point?
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Well, if two great traders like to use some form of rate of change, it might just be worth exploring how it could fit into your trading model.
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I mean, it does make sense, right?
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The markets do move in 2-3 day rhythms.
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We see it all the time… trend one day, then consolidate the next.
Inside day then breakout.
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Maybe Rate of Change gives us a clearer read on that cycle?
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Have a play with it, see what you think.