Trader Losing Streak Maths: Why Even Top Traders Go Red

Here’s how the maths works—and what it means for your risk.

Most top traders have a low win rate.
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In fact, a recent leaderboard from a prop firm showed the median win rate of the top 10 traders this year was just 36%.
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📈 Yep, only 1 in 3 trades were winners…
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And yet each trader had banked $200k–$550k year-to-date.
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How?
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Good risk/reward… and the mental game to stomach the pain.
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But let’s dig into what a 36% win rate actually means on the desk:

WIN RATE REALITY

Let’s do the maths.

If your win rate is 36%, and let’s say you take 2 trades a day, 5 days a week:

  • That’s 40 trades/month
  • 120 trades/quarter
  • 400 trades/year (Let’s assume a few breaks)


So… what are the odds you hit a nasty losing streak?

I asked ChatGPT to run me a trade simulation, and I checked using a streak calculator I found online.

Here were the results…

“Based on 10,000 simulations with a 36% win rate over 400 trades, there is approximately an 81.9% chance of experiencing at least one 10-loss streak in a year.”

So, even if your edge is real… even if you’re doing everything right…

On those stats, you will very likely at some point in the year:

🔻 Be down 10R
❌ Be red every day for a week (if you trade twice a day)
🤯 Start questioning everything…

And that’s before tilt kicks in.

If just one of those trades turns into a revenge punt?

Suddenly –10R becomes –15R… or worse.

That’s why top traders don’t just prepare their setups.

✅ They prepare their minds and risk models for these streaks.
✅ They expect pain.
✅ They size for pain.

And they don’t overreact when it shows up.

So, when it does show up for you, just remember…

It’s not personal. It’s probability.

Don’t let it send you on tilt.
Stay strong.